Trump – USA signaling recession

Imagine yourself a successful business owner. Through hard work, discipline and lots of effort you managed to establish your brand. You have now amassed wealth and recognition. By now running your business is more of a flat walk than going uphill.

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So you start diversifying and investing in new ventures. You start spending money on new things you believe will make your business grow. But suddenly things start going south. Your old business is not performing as expected and the new ventures are not picking off the ground. You first tell yourself that it’s only a seasonal thing. But as a year goes by, things look even worse, and you are now losing lots of money.

It is at that moment when you realize the difference. When you first started your business you had not much to lose, and so the fear of losing already attained wealth was not so big. However now with the new ventures, the fear of losing the first business is huge.

So what would be your first instinct? Focus on the old, proven business? Focus on the new ventures?

The rational answer would be to analyze, get data and make an informed decision. However the first instinct would probably be to get rid of the old and go back to the roots. Go back to the old way which you know it already worked.

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Countries seem to be not so different. The two major genocides happened when once wealthy countries had a hard turn in history and suddenly found themselves powerless. Even with people, there’s this psychological effect of returning to the roots and disposing of everything else when in a very deep down turn.

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So now we turn to the USA, specifically to the GOP front runner who doesn’t need to be named. Just taking a look at his campaign title “Make America Great Again” can give you a sense of what’s going on. Trump’s behavior and campaign goals are perfectly aligned with this instinct of disposing everything new and going back to the old ways. The problem with this ideology is that it is completely emotional and has no rational basis. It exploits the fears  of the people which can lead to violent reactions.

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The question still unanswered here is why is this all happening when the USA is still the most rich and powerful country in the world? I believe this is happening because the people in the USA fear that the country has stopped growing. This is why I believe that Trump gaining so much attention and votes can only be interpreted as the American people feeling their country is not anymore what it once was. And so it is the best signal for an upcoming American recession… Unless, of course, people’s feelings are the product of an emotion synthesizing machine called the Media of the United States.

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